It is more a question of when than if, when referring to the next big earthquake to hit the Bay Area. The questions asked now do not just refer to damage to roads and buildings, but damage to the economy – specifically, to the East Bay and Silicon Valley.
On Monday, the 27th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake, the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released “Beyond the Numbers,” a study examining the labor market risks of a major earthquake.
There is a 72 percent chance of a magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquake happening in the next 30 years, most likely along the Hayward Fault, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
“We know the Hayward Fault is overdue. Some people say it’s pregnant. On average it ruptures every 140 years. And the last rupture was in 1868,” USGS seismologist Anne Marie Baltay said.
Experts say it is not possible to predict the potential loss of life, but it is possible to predict the loss of livelihoods.
A major earthquake could affect 101,000 businesses, 1.5 million employees, and annual payrolls totaling $150 billion, according to the BLS study, with the majority of the impact in the East Bay.
“The most intense shaking in Alameda County would affect 91 percent of the businesses and employees,” BLS assistant commissioner Richard Holden said.
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He says the greatest sectors impacted would be healthcare, manufacturing and the technology industry.
Santa Clara County would also be impacted greatly, according to Holden. He says wages have gone up substantially since 2007, when BLS did its last earthquake impact study, and it is most likely because of tech growth.
For how businesses can prepare for the next big earthquake, visit the BLS website.
The agency notes the Great California ShakeOut, the annual earthquake drill, is on Thursday.
