Currents of Change: El Nino Forecast

Possible heavy rain and snow due to an overall change in the jet stream are forecast to begin in December or January

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a very strong El Nino -- a 2.5 on the strength scale.

That's 2.5 degrees Celsius, a sea surface temperature anomaly. The current forecast is that it will last into the winter and possibly through the spring.

The Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, is forecasting greater-than-average rainfall for virtually all of California. And, according to NOAA's most current Winter Outlook, Southern California's probability of a wet winter has gone up from 40 to 50 percent.

In fact, the precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-average conditions in the southern tier of the United States, from California to southern New England.

Possible heavy rain and snow due to an overall change in the jet stream are forecast to begin in December or January.

The wet weather forecast comes after consecutive years with below normal snowpack. In 2013, we finished the season with 47 percent of the normal snowpack. In 2014, the figure was down to 333, and last year saw only 5 percent -- one of the smallest snowpacks on record.

It's critical we build up the snow in Northern California. Snow forecasts are dependent on the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

Temperatures during the current El Nino could have a big impact on snowfall. NOAA is forecasting above-average temperatures across much of the West and northern half of the United States. These higher temperatures could lead to higher snow levels rather than at mid to lower elevations.

As for drought impact, the U.S. Drought Outlook shows some improvement is likely in Central and Southern California by the end of January, but not drought removal. Additional statewide relief is possible during February and March.

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