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Home Prices Surged in November, But at a Slower Rate Than in October, S&P Case-Shiller Says

Shannon Stapleton | Reuters
  • Even as the housing market entered its traditionally slower season in November, home prices showed big gains from a year ago.
  • Prices rose 18.8% year over year on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Yet that was a slower rate than the October pace, which was a 19% annual gain.
  • The 10-city composite climbed 16.8% annually, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20-city composite grew 18.3%, down from 18.5% in October.

Even as the housing market entered its traditionally slower season in November, home prices showed big gains from a year ago.

Prices rose 18.8% year over year on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Yet that was a slower rate than the October pace, which was a 19% annual gain.

The 10-city composite climbed 16.8% annually, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20-city composite grew 18.3%, down from 18.5% in October.

"Despite this deceleration, it's important to remember that November's 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November)," noted Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI.

Some markets are posting some stunning gains. Phoenix, Tampa, Florida, and Miami saw the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November, with increases of 32.2%, 29.0% and 26.6%, respectively.

Chicago, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C., showed the smallest annual gains, although they were all still up around 11%.

Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ended November 2021 versus the year ended October 2021.

Mortgage rates didn't move much in October and November, holding between 3% and 3.25% for the average on the popular 30-year fixed. While that was slightly higher than the early summer levels, it was still historically low and considerably lower than where rates are now. Rates are now about 75 basis points above year-ago levels. Low rates over the last two years have given buyers more purchasing power and consequently fueled today's sky-high prices.

"We should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices," added Lazzara.

A recent report from Realtor.com found that 14 out of the top 50 largest U.S. cities experienced listing price declines over the prior year in December.

Correction: Craig Lazzara is managing director at S&P DJI. An earlier version misspelled his name.

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