Clayton Kershaw to Return on Thursday, Can he Save the Dodgers?

The king…has returned. 

Adrian Peterson, Mario Lemieux, Michael Jordan…the sports world is ripe with athletes triumphantly returning to their respective sport, but few are more important to their team's success than Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw.

There is no denying Kershaw's dominance. Since his Major League Debut ten years ago this month, the Dodgers have won seven division titles and the Dallas, Texas native has racked up three Cy Young Awards and one MVP trophy.

Arguably considered the best pitcher of his era, Kershaw's career WAR (wins above replacement) is a whopping 61.7, the seventh most among active players. In case you're confused on what that stat means, Kershaw adds nearly six wins per season to his team compared to the average starting pitcher. That is considered MVP quality amongst most major metrics.

Kershaw is slated to return to the Dodgers rotation on Thursday after missing the last four weeks with left bicep tendinitis. The 30-year-old southpaw threw a simulated game on Saturday afternoon, facing teammates Chase Utley, Cody Bellinger, Kiké Hernandez and Austin Barnes over four innings on roughly 61 pitches.

"Well, you can't simulate a big-league game," said Kershaw after the sim game. "All the things you do to prepare to pitch a big-league game, until you're in one you really don't know where you're at. You do all you can to prepare, but ultimately you have to face guys."

Kershaw's eminent return will likely send Dodger fans into a splendor, as they laud him the savior of a season that started among the most dismal in franchise history.

When Kershaw went on the disabled list the Dodgers were 15-19 and nine games out of first place in the National League West.

Four weeks later, the team is still four games below .500 (24-28), but find themselves just 3.5 games out of first place following a free fall from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Despite the Dodgers subpar record, the team is trending in the right direction, winners of eight out of their last ten games, the starting rotation, without Kershaw, has posted a 1.38 ERA since May 17, leading to the question: do the Dodgers really need Kershaw to save them?

The answer might surprise you.

Kershaw's greatness is undeniable, but as great as he may be, he is human. Moreover, he is just one man in a starting rotation of five. As a starting pitcher, he can make just one appearance every five days. Therefore, the fortune of that team on the other four days is completely out of that player's control, and Kershaw is no exception.

Kershaw is known as a streak stopper, because he can right the ship after a string of consecutive losses. In fact, he has done that throughout his career with a record of 23-6 after a loss since 2016.

In baseball, momentum is everything and arguably, a single starting pitcher has little to do with that momentum. As a collective group, the starting rotation plays a vital role in carrying over momentum from game-to-game, but its primarily the position players that are the crucial cog that keeps the wheel turning for consistent success or failure.

In the case of Kershaw, he alone cannot save the Dodgers. His return from the disabled list on Thursday will therefore have little effect on the team's overall standing or momentum from day-to-day. Sure, he can provide help when he puts on his cape every fifth day to hopefully provide the Dodgers consistency and a win, but it's the other four days that worry us.

For example, during an 18-game span from Aug. 26 to Sept. 12 last season, the Dodgers won just two games; Kershaw started both of those games. So yes, Kershaw can stop a losing streak, but he's incapable of preventing a massive slump by evidence of that 16 of 17 losing streak at the tale end of last season.

Kershaw's starts over the next four months of the season are a small piece of a very big puzzle that includes an inconsistent bullpen, and lack of offensive production at some very key positions. Sure, Kershaw could throw a no-hitter every fifth day, but what about the other four games?

When Kershaw was healthy to start the season, the Dodgers still struggled. As mentioned, when he went on the disabled list the team was four games under .500. Four weeks later, and they are still four games under .500.

As difficult as it is to except, through 50+ games this season, it's possible the Dodgers are what their record says they are: a .500 team or worse.

If that's the case, unfortunately, Kershaw's return from the DL would have little to no change than it did before he went on the DL.

As an example, take the last three seasons as a case study for Kershaw's impact on the overall record or success of the Dodgers:

In the past three seasons, 2016, 2017, and 2018, Kershaw has spent significant time on the disabled list with injuries to his back and throwing arm.

Out of the last 373 games, Kershaw has missed 113 of them due to injury, effectively taking him out of over 35 percent of his team's games in the last three years.

Ordinarily, you would think the absence of a former MVP with an average WAR above six would significantly effect his team's results, but not so. In the 113 games Kershaw spent on the DL over the last three years, the Dodgers have a record of 69-44. That's a .610 win percentage which would currently be fifth best in all of baseball as of today's publication date.

So if the Dodgers win percentage without Kershaw is a whopping .610, it must be higher when he's on the active roster, right? Wrong.

In the 260 games with Kershaw in the starting rotation, the Dodgers are 148-112 over the last three seasons. Still good, but with a lower win percentage of .569, 41 points below the mark than when Kershaw is on the DL.

There's no denying that the Dodgers (and baseball) need a healthy Clayton Kershaw. As Dave Roberts put it on Sunday before the team's finale against the San Diego Padres:

"It's a big lift. You have your ace coming back and as we have righted the ship and are trending in the right direction to have him back every fifth day…as we're playing better baseball, to add him to the mix is a really good thing for all of us."

But with the current starting rotation finally hitting their stride, is it beneficial to rush Kershaw back from injury if his return is not necessary?

Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda has emerged as the starting pitcher the Dodgers thought they were getting when they signed him out of Japan three years ago. Ross Stripling has risen from bullpen relocation to lights out stuff as a starter. 

Former first round pick out of Vanderbilt, Walker Buehler, is ready to take over as the heir incumbent to Kershaw's ace-caliber throne, and outside of a few blemishes, Alex Wood has proven to be a formidable big league starter. 

Kershaw's addition to the rotation will help solidify a weak fifth spot in the order, with Rich Hill out, but eventually both Hill and Hyun-Jin Ryu will be ready to return from the DL making matters even more complicated.

From an injury standpoint, Kershaw's bicep tendinitis is cause for concern. Despite MRI results showing no structural damage to the tendons (a huge sigh of relief), the bicep tendons are attached to the labrum, providing stability in the shoulder. Further damage to the tendons or the shoulder could be career-ending for Kershaw.

At 30-years of age and in his 11^th Major League season, Kershaw is lucky to have escaped any serious season-ending injuries, but the tread on his tires is significantly higher than most pitchers his age. If Kershaw does re-sign with the Dodgers in the offseason, as many experts predict, the team will definitely have to monitor and limit his usage during the second half of his career.

Can Kershaw return to his three-time Cy Young Award winner form and fly in and save the Dodgers season like Superman?

We'll see when he returns, but likely his return will have little impact on the team's future success, and the risks appear to outweigh the immediate reward.

Jacob Rudner of Dodgers Way contributed to this story.