Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge. Thus far, we've accurately predicted six of the eight advantages in starting pitching based upon the stats.
Personally - We've covered his personal success from this past season already, and he provided us with a bad outing against the Phillies in his last time out. He didn't last through the third inning, giving up eight hits, seven earned runs, and walking three. He did strike out five batters, but he obviously wasn't fooling the majority of the Philadelphia batting order.
Home Splits - He's a better pitcher at home. Not as much better as the record shows (10-4 at home and 6-6 on the road), because the ERA difference isn't huge. He sported a 2.95 ERA at home this year, as opposed to 3.33 on the road. He does have much better control at home (112/35 K/BB as opposed to 89/45 on the road in nearly identical innings pitched), so we'll see if he can be effective within the strike zone tonight.
History Against Philly - We covered his regular season history against the Phillies in the previous post. As I said up above, though, he was awful against them Friday evening.
Vs. Specific Hitters - Also already covered, and we can expand upon the numbers with the inclusion of last game. Jayson Werth and Carlos Ruiz both doubled in key spots. Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino singled ... while Chase Utley walked twice. At least Billingsley doesn't have to face Brett Myers this time around, who singled twice and garnered three RBI.Cole Hamels
Personally - We covered this before Game 1, and he added a nice outing at home against the Dodgers on that night.
Road Splits - This year Hamels went 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA on the road. He struck out 106 batters in 110 innings, a much higher K-rate than at home. His WHIP is also a tad bit lower on the road, sitting at 1.09.
History Against LA - Well, we covered him in the previous post as to the regular season success against the boys in blue. In Game 1, he went seven strong innings, yielding six hits, two walks, and two earned runs. He struck out eight and picked up the win.
His career numbers in Dodger Stadium amount to his seven inning start this season, in which he gave up only five hits and two earned runs.
Vs. Specific Hitters - Already been covered, and in Game 1 we saw Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier collect two hits each, including a double apiece. Matt Kemp also doubled. James Loney singled and walked. Other than that, the Dodgers were pretty locked down by Hamels.Edge
The slight edge has to go to the Phillies and their ace, Hamels.
The difference in the numbers, other than Billingsley's atrocious outing in Game 2, doesn't swing far enough one way to completely count one team out. Personally, I think the Dodgers extend this series one more game, only to lose in Game 6. I'm sure the Phillies fans wouldn't mind having this thing come back home for celebration purposes anyway.