The UCLA Anderson School of Management released its third quarterly economic forecast of 2011 revealing a recession free economy, but a slow recovery rate for the next couple of years.
With an increase of jobs for the months of September and October, California ‘s unemployment rate declined from 12.1 percent to 11.7 percent, providing a surprising uplift to the current economic slump.
However, the numbers are not representative of the trend to come. The report suggests the economy may be recovering but said "the headwinds are substantial" and growth will be slow.
“Recession or not, the employment situation remains horrible. Job growth has stalled and we forecast that the unemployment rate will soon rise to 9.5 percent. Thus, even by the end of 2013 we will not be back to the unemployment levels of late 2007,” said David Shulman, UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist.
Nationwide, the unemployment rate is 2.7 percent less than the percentages presented in the Los Angeles-Long Beach area (11.1) or the Riverside-San Bernardino county (13.3).
High unemployment rates in the Inland Empire are attributed to more individuals relocating to different regions and a surplus of housing, as well as shrinkage in government, said Jerry Nickelsburg, UCLA Anderson School of Management Senior Economist.
Fortunately for the first time, employment gains increased slightly over the last few months, but it was not attributed to construction, housing, finance or government, said Nickelsburg.
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The trend is making economists slightly more optimistic of what is to come.
Currently, 25 million Americans are in search of full-time work and the state’s unemployment rate will average about 10.5 percent in 2013; potentially making 2014 the year the state should see a decline to single digit percentages.
In an effort to improve the current trend, Nickelsburg recommends local governments take “an opportunity to look at the patch work quilt of regulations” and look at ways to simplify and make them more efficient which will help spur the creation of new businesses.
He also suggests for local governments to work on ways to improve the skills of workers.
“The more skilled the labor force," Nickelsburg said, "the more attractive it becomes.”
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