Golden Globes

Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will vs Who Should Win?

The 78th Golden Globe Awards will air Feb. 28 on NBC.

20th Century Studios

The Golden Globe Awards have earned the nickname of Hollywood’s Party of the Year. That’s due in large part to the party-like atmosphere of the event, and the blend of film and television luminaries with dinner and copious amounts of drinks. 

Since 1944, the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association have been handing out awards honoring the best in film and television. But this year, the party will be virtual. The event will also be bicoastal with Tina Fey hosting from The Rainbow Room in New York and Amy Poehler hosting from The Beverly Hilton in Los Angeles. 

There are 87 members of the HFPA who cast their ballots each year compared to more than 800 in the Motion Picture Academy who vote on the Oscars. Those members come from more than 50 countries around the world. That means a very small, eclectic group of members decide who will win. And part of the fun of predicting Globe winners comes from trying to guess who the HFPA will favor.

Here’s a list of the nominees and our predictions on who will win vs who should win.


Best Motion Picture — Drama

“The Father”


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“Promising Young Woman”

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Should win and will win: “Nomadland”

Many industry insiders think “Nomadland” will win Best Picture - Drama. It stars Frances McDormand and was beautifully directed by Chloe Zhao. Zhao is also nominated for Best Director in a Motion Picture. 

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”



“Palm Springs”

“The Prom”

Will win: “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

Should win: “Palm Springs”

There is a lot of love from the HFPA for Sasha Baron Cohen. It would be a surprise if his film didn’t win in this category. But “Palm Springs” was a breath of fresh air last year when it surprised viewers with its heartfelt and unique take on a time-loop story. 

Best Director for a Motion Picture

Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”

David Fincher, “Mank”

Regina King, “One Night in Miami”

Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”

Should win and will win: Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”

If Chloé Zhao wins for “Nomadland” she would make history as the first film directed by a woman to win the Best Picture - Drama prize.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama

Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”

Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey's Black Bottom”

Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”

Gary Oldman, “Mank”

Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian”

Will win: Gary Oldman, “Mank”

Should win: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

Oldman commands his performance as screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz without all the extra costuming and delivers a raw look at Old Hollywood. However many industry experts believe Boseman should win for his career-best turn in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama

Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey's Black Bottom”

Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”

Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”

Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”

Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

Will win: Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”

Should win: Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

Mulligan gives an excellent performance in “Promising Young Woman” as a fiery feminist. But the HFPA has had a long love affair with McDormand and she’ll be hard to beat.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

James Corden, “The Prom”

Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”

Dev Patel, “The Personal History of David Copperfield”

Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs”

Will win: Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

Should win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”

This is Miranda’s second time to be nominated in this category. He was previously nominated for “Mary Poppins.” But now he’s been nominated for creating and starring in a show-turned-filmed stage performance of his creation. However, Cohen won in this category for the original “Borat” and will likely win again.


Best Television Series — Drama

“The Crown”

“Lovecraft Country”

“The Mandalorian”



Will win and should win: “The Crown”

This is a tough category this year because so many of these shows could easily come out ahead. But given the international appeal of “The Crown” this last season, and it’s history of 15 nominations and 3 wins at the Globes, it will likely win again.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Drama

Olivia Colman, “The Crown”

Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”

Emma Corrin, “The Crown”

Laura Linney, “Ozark”

Sarah Paulson, “Ratched”

Will win: Emma Corrin, “The Crown”

Should win: Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”

The HFPA likes to throw in a curveball now and then and with the popularity of Corrin’s performance as the beloved Lady Diana, she could get the top spot. But Jodie Comer’s performance in “Killing Eve” is mesmerizing and should win this year.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Drama

Jason Bateman, “Ozark”

Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

Josh O'Connor, “The Crown”

Al Pacino, “Hunters”

Matthew Rhys, “Perry Mason”

Will win and should win: Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

Odenkirk was shockingly snubbed at the Emmys last year. Here’s hoping the HFPA makes up for it by recognizing his work on “Better Call Saul” this last season.

Here is a complete list of nominees. The Golden Globe Awards air Sunday, Feb. 28 8 p.m. ET on NBC.

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